By Matthew Rosen
With the midterm elections coming up, you might be wondering how to keep track of the most competitive races and make solid predictions. Because there are 470 congressional races to follow, you may feel like it is impossible to follow along. Fear not, I have done the work for you! During the past week, I have researched and broken down the important races into categories so you can know which races are important, and who is favored.
House of Representatives– The first chamber of Congress we will look at is the House. Historically, during midterm elections the President’s party loses an average of 29 seats. Currently, the Democrats only need to flip *23* seats in order to take back control of the House. For Democrats, 23 is the magic number. For this analysis, I will not be looking at all 435 House Races as that would be insane. Instead, I will look at only the most important and competitive races, starting with the 42 races that are either tied, or likely to flip (“Flip” means that the controlling party will change, or in other words, the incumbent party will lose).
If all Polls were right– First, we will look at what the House would look like if all the polls were correct. Of course, this will not happen as some Republicans will win Democrat-favored seats, and some Democrats will win Republican-favored seats. However, I believe it is important to look at what the polls suggest will happen. The polls suggest there will be:
24 Democrat Flips (Seats that Reps control now that Dems are predicted to win)
2 Republican Flips (Seats that Dems control now that Reps are predicted to win)
16 Virtual Ties (Too close to call, all of which have Republican Incumbents)
In this scenario, the Democrats gain +22, with 16 races that are too close to call. This means that the Republicans would have to win ALL 16 virtual ties in order to keep the house. If the Democrats win even one of these, they will control the House. Below are all the seats that fall into each of these categories. The black shows what district the race is occuring in, the blue names are Democrats, and the red names are Republicans. The first name is the name of the candidate who wins, and the name in parenthesis is the candidate who will lose:
24 Democrat Flips
- Arizona 2nd – Anne Kirkpatrick (Lea Marquez Peterson)
- California 10th – Josh Harder (Jeff Denham)
- California 25th – Katie Hill (Stephen Knight)
- California 45th – Katie Porter (Mimi Walters)
- California 49th – Mike Levin (Diane Harkey)
- Colorado 6th – Jason Crow (Mike Coffman)
- Florida 27th – Donna Shalala (Maria Salazar)
- Iowa 1st – Abby Finkenauer (Rod Blum)
- Iowa 3rd – Cindy Axne (David Young)
- Kansas 3rd – Sharice Davids (Kevin Yoder)
- Kentucky 6th – Amy McGrath (Andy Barr)
- Maine 2nd – Jared Golden (Bruce Poliquin)
- Michigan 11th – Haley Stevens (Lena Epstein)
- Minnesota 2nd – Angie Craig (Jason Lewis)
- Minnesota 3rd – Dean Phillips (Erik Paulsen)
- New Jersey 2nd – Jeff Van Drew (Seth Grossman)
- New Jersey 3rd – Andy Kim (Tom MacArthur)
- New Jersey 7th – Tom Malinowski (Leonard Lance)
- New Jersey 11th – Mikie Sherrill (Jay Webber)
- Pennsylvania 5th – Mary Scanlon (Pearl Kim)
- Pennsylvania 6th – Chrissy Houlahan (Greg McCauley)
- Pennsylvania 7th – Susan Wild (Marty Nothstein)
- Pennsylvania 17th – Conor Lamb (Keith Rothfus)
- Virginia 10th – Jennifer Wexton (Barbara Comstock)
2 Republican Flips
- Minnesota 8th – Pete Stauber (Joe Radinovich)
- Pennsylvania 14th – Guy Reschenthaler (Bibiana Boerio)
16 Virtual Ties
- California 39th – Young Kim vs Gil Cisneros
- California 48th – Dana Rohrabacher vs Harley Rouda
- Florida 15th – Ross Spano vs Kristen Carlson
- Florida 26th – Carlos Curbelo vs Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
- Illinois 6th – Peter Roskam vs Sean Casten
- Kansas 2nd – Steve Watkins vs Paul Davis
- Michigan 8th – Mike Bishop vs Elissa Slotkin
- Minnesota 1st – Jim Hagedorn vs Dan Feehan
- New Mexico 2nd – Yvette Herrell vs Xochitl Torres Small
- New York 19th – John Faso vs Antonio Delgado
- New York 22nd (our own local race!) – Claudia Tenney vs Anthony Brindisi
- North Carolina 9th – Mark Harris vs Dan McCready
- Pennsylvania 4th – Brian Fitzpatrick vs Scott Wallace
- Texas 7th – John Culberson vs Lizzie Fletcher
- Virginia 5th – Denver Riggleman vs Leslie Cockburn
- Washington 8th – Dino Rossi vs Kim Schreier
Breaking Down the Flips
17 Pretty Solid Democratic Flips
- Arizona 2nd – Anne Kirkpatrick (Lea Marquez Peterson)
- California 10th – Josh Harder (Jeff Denham)
- California 49th – Mike Levin (Diane Harkey)
- Colorado 6th – Jason Crow (Mike Coffman)
- Florida 27th – Donna Shalala (Maria Salazar)
- Iowa 1st – Abby Finkenauer (Rod Blum)
- Kansas 3rd – Sharice Davids (Kevin Yoder)
- Michigan 11th – Haley Stevens (Lena Epstein)
- Minnesota 2nd – Angie Craig (Jason Lewis)
- Minnesota 3rd – Dean Phillips (Erik Paulsen)
- New Jersey 2nd – Jeff Van Drew (Seth Grossman)
- New Jersey 11th – Mikie Sherrill (Jay Webber)
- Pennsylvania 5th – Mary Scanlon (Pearl Kim)
- Pennsylvania 6th – Chrissy Houlahan (Greg McCauley)
- Pennsylvania 7th – Susan Wild (Marty Nothstein)
- Pennsylvania 17th – Conor Lamb (Keith Rothfus)
- Virginia 10th – Jennifer Wexton (Barbara Comstock)
7 Leaning Towards Democratic Flip
- California 25th – Katie Hill (Stephen Knight)
- California 45th – Katie Porter (Mimi Walters)
- Iowa 3rd – Cindy Axne (David Young)
- Kentucky 6th – Amy McGrath (Andy Barr)
- Maine 2nd – Jared Golden (Bruce Poliquin)
- New Jersey 3rd – Andy Kim (Tom MacArthur)
- New Jersey 7th – Tom Malinowski (Leonard Lance)
16 Toss Ups
- California 39th – Young Kim vs Gil Cisneros
- California 48th – Dana Rohrabacher vs Harley Rouda
- Florida 15th – Ross Spano vs Kristen Carlson
- Florida 26th – Carlos Curbelo vs Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
- Illinois 6th – Peter Roskam vs Sean Casten
- Kansas 2nd – Steve Watkins vs Paul Davis
- Michigan 8th – Mike Bishop vs Elissa Slotkin
- Minnesota 1st – Jim Hagedorn vs Dan Feehan
- New Mexico 2nd – Yvette Herrell vs Xochitl Torres Small
- New York 19th – John Faso vs Antonio Delgado
- New York 22nd – Claudia Tenney vs Anthony Brindisi
- North Carolina 9th – Mark Harris vs Dan McCready
- Pennsylvania 4th – Brian Fitzpatrick vs Scott Wallace
- Texas 7th – John Culberson vs Lizzie Fletcher
- Virginia 5th – Denver Riggleman vs Leslie Cockburn
- Washington 8th – Dino Rossi vs Kim Schreier
2 Solid Republican Flips
- Minnesota 8th – Pete Stauber (Joe Radinovich)
- Pennsylvania 14th – Guy Reschenthaler (Bibiana Boerio)
Breaking Down Seats that are not Predicted to flip, but could easily– If we just break down those 42 districts that are ties or possible flips, the Republicans would have to essentially win every district that is too close to call in order to keep the House. However, there are 7 seats that are favored to flip towards the Democrats, but only slightly. If the Republicans could win some upsets in those 7 districts, they could give themselves a slight buffer to lessen the pressure in tied districts. Despite this, there are other opportunities for both parties besides these 42 seats. Now it is crucial to look at districts where the incumbent party is projected to keep power, but only slightly.
12 Seats that the Democrats could win that currently Lean Republican
- Alaska at-large – Don Young vs Alyse Galvin
- Georgia 6th – Karen Handel vs Lucy McBath
- Illinois 12th – Mike Bost vs Brendan Kelly
- Illinois 13th – Rodney Davis vs Betsy Londrigan
- Montana at-large – Greg Gianforte vs Kathleen Williams
- New York 24th – John Katko vs Dana Balter
- North Carolina 2nd – George Holding vs Linda Coleman
- Pennsylvania 10th – Scott Perry vs George Scott
- Texas 32nd – Pete Sessions vs Colin Allred
- Utah 4th – Mia Love vs Ben McAdams
- Virginia 2nd – Scott Taylor vs Elaine Luria
- Virginia 7th – David Brat vs Abigail Spanberger
2 Seats that the Republicans could win that currently Lean Democrat
Arizona 1st – Tom O’Halleran vs Wendy Rogers
Nevada 3rd – Susie Lee vs Danny Tarkanian
Conclusion
It seems pretty clear that the Democrats will take back the House. I would predict that they gain anywhere from 23-33 seats. While the Democrats winning the House will be detrimental to the Trump agenda, anything from a Democrat +23 to a Democrat +29 isn’t too awful if you compare it to historical midterm elections.
This election definitely favors the Democrats, just as most midterm elections favor the party that isn’t in power. The Democrats have 52 opportunities to flip seats, while the Republicans only have 4 opportunities. And of course we can’t forget the other races (besides these 56 that we looked at) where crazy upsets can always happen, even if they are unlikely.
Just as most midterm elections are, this is a defensive struggle for the party in power. Since the Republican are in power, their goal is to defend as many seats as possible, while the Democrat’s goal is to flip as many seats as possible.
Senate
Seats not up for Election
23 Democrat Seats are not up
42 Republican Seats are not up
16 Safe Democratic Seats (that are up for election)
- ME – Angus King running as Independent (Eric Brakey)
- VT – Bernie Sanders running as Independent (Lawrence Zupan)
- CA – Dianne Feinstein (Kevin De Leon)
- CT – Chris Murphy (Matthew Corey)
- DE – Tom Carper (Robert Arlett)
- HI – Mazie Hirono (Ron Curtis)
- MA – Elizabeth Warren (Geoff Diehl)
- MD – Ben Cardin (Tony Campbell)
- MI – Debbie Stabenow (John James)
- MN – Amy Klobuchar (Jim Newberger)
- NM – Martin Heinrich (Mick Rich)
- NY – Kirsten Gillibrand (Chele Farley)
- PA – Bob Casey (Lou Barletta)
- RI – Sheldon Whitehouse (Robert Flanders)
- VA – Tim Kaine (Corey Stewart)
- WA – Maria Cantwell (Susan Hutchinson)
4 Safe Republican Seats (that are up for election)
- MS – Roger Wicker (David Baria)
- NE – Deb Fischer (Jane Raybould)
- UT – Mitt Romney (Jenny Wilson)
- WY – John Barrasso (Gary Trauner)
15 Competitive Races (Color of the State shows the Incumbent Party)-
Above we see that Mitt Romney is safe in Utah, but it is important to note that he isn’t the incumbent. He is running for Orrin Hatch’s (R) seat in Utah, who is not running for reelection. Before taking into account these 15 close races, the Senate is 46-39 in favor of the Republicans. This means that if the Republicans can win 4 of these races, the Senate will be 50-50 (A tie in the Senate is favorable for the Republicans since Vice President Pence is the tie breaker). If the Republicans win 5 of these, they will have 51 seats, and so on. This means that the Democrats would have to win 12 of these close races to take control of the Senate. Two names to note are Marsha Blackburn and Martha McSally, who are running for Bob Corker’s (R) and Jeff Flake’s (R) seats respectively, as both Corker and Flake are not running for reelection. Below are the Senate races that are competitive and therefore not 100% safe for either party:
- MS – Cindy Hyde-Smith vs Mike Espy
- NV – Dean Heller vs Jacky Rosen
- TN – Marsha Blackburn vs Phil Bredesen
- TX – Ted Cruz vs Beto O’Rourke
- AZ – Martha McSally vs Kyrsten Sinema
- FL – Bill Nelson vs Rick Scott
- IN – Joe Donnelly vs Mike Braun
- MN – Tina Smith vs Karin Housley
- MO – Claire McCaskill vs Josh Hawley
- MT – Jon Tester vs Matt Rosendale
- ND – Heidi Heitkamp vs Kevin Cramer
- NJ – Bob Menendez vs Bob Hugin
- OH – Sherrod Brown vs Jim Renacci
- WI – Tammy Baldwin vs Leah Vukmir
- WV – Joe Manchin vs Patrick Morrisey
Competitive Race Predictions
7 Democrat wins
- IN – Joe Donnelly vs Mike Braun
- MN – Tina Smith vs Karin Housley
- MT – Jon Tester vs Matt Rosendale
- NJ – Bob Menendez vs Bob Hugin
- OH – Sherrod Brown vs Jim Renacci
- WI – Tammy Baldwin vs Leah Vukmir
- WV – Joe Manchin vs Patrick Morrisey
5 Republican Wins
- MS – Cindy Hyde-Smith vs Mike Espy
- NV – Dean Heller vs Jacky Rosen
- TN – Marsha Blackburn vs Phil Bredesen
- TX – Ted Cruz vs Beto O’Rourke
- ND – Heidi Heitkamp vs Kevin Cramer
3 Too Close to Call
- AZ – Martha McSally vs Kyrsten Sinema
- FL – Bill Nelson vs Rick Scott
- MO – Claire McCaskill vs Josh Hawley
Conclusion
If my predictions are correct, the Senate will be 51 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 3 too close to call. The best case scenario for the Republicans then would be if McSally, Scott, and Hawley all win, making the Senate 54-46 in favor of the Republicans. The best case scenario for the Democrats then would be if Sinema, Nelson, and McCaskill all win, making it 51-49 in favor of the Republicans. Either way, the Republicans appear to be able to hold the Senate, holding between 51 and 54 seats.